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Welcome to Bay Street Views. I'm on a mission to educate, inform, and assist you with making smart financial decisions, sound investment choices, and, most importantly, avoid financial accidents.
You're likely to be wondering how's 2021 going to shape up after such a turbulent year. In many ways, this year is likely to be full of surprises, and not necessarily in a bad way.
Consensus calls for a 10% gain in US stocks in 2021. While it's impossible to accurately predict the market performance, I do expect equities to outperform cash and fixed income this year. However, I'm equally convinced that markets are at an inflection point and caution is warranted.
The new round of COVID-19 lockdown is likely to delay the much-needed recovery in the global economy. A more contagious variants of COVID-19 could trigger a massive increase in infection rates, similar to what's been happening in London and other parts of Europe. Consequently, we could see stocks pull back as much as 10% to 20%. And if so, the correction is likely to be rather short-lived.
The second half of the year should be much stronger for equities. The vaccine-induced economy should come roaring back and be lifted by the pent-up demand once we go back to some semblance of normalcy.
Now, you may also wonder about the longer term outlook. Currently, we're still in the early innings of the economic comeback. Typically, the initial phase of the recovery from the lowest point of the recession lasts for about 12 to 18 months. During this period, we see a spectacular growth, both in terms of GDP and corporate profits.
Inevitably, the growth slows down to a pace that's in line with the economy's long-term potential. As such, beyond robust 2021, I expect the economy to grow at a much, much slower pace relative to its long-term average.
Over the next 10 years, the US government expects the economy to grow at around 2.2% annually after inflation. This is similar to the growth rate over the past decade, but much lower than the 3% to 5% growth rate we enjoyed since World War II. The slowdown is attributed primarily to the aging workforce and drag from very large buildup in government debt.
Slow growth tends to intensify the competition. The weakest companies get sidelined or taken over by larger competitors. I expect the mergers and acquisitions to accelerate over the coming years. Strong will get stronger, and weak will gradually fade away.
So how do I position the portfolio for a long-term success when the growth in the economy is expected to be lackluster and the competition fierce? I want to own companies that offer qualities that are in short supply-- growth, yield, and safety.
So for wealth creation, I want to own businesses that are growing faster than the economy. For income, I want to own stocks that grow dividends. And for relative safety, I want to own companies with dominant market shares.
In conclusion of today's episode, don't be adventurous with your investment portfolio. The market has an enormous capacity to humble investors in ways you can't even start to imagine. So be diversified without owning the entire market and be very selective in what you own when navigating the tricky waters.
I thank you for watching. And feel free to reach out to me when you seek guidance in the right direction. Be well, and stay safe.